Monday 22 February 2010

Operations Research - operations research, buzz


I liked this book and learned a lot about a market-research technique that I had hoped might apply to the needs of a small business-to-business company. The book made me enthusiastic about the potential to test product concepts before we spend a lot of money taking final products to market. The approach the authors advocate appears to be able to dramatically reduce risk for companies that are trying to get their offering right. The focus of the book is primarily on consumer-goods companies and their products, though the technique has also be used for B2B offerings.



As I got into the book, I was disappointed that the only practical advice the authors offer is to contact them about using their on-line research tool. Good as their tool may be, it appears not to be well suited for the needs of my small B2B business.



I now feel I've paid about $20 for the authors' elaborate marketing brochure, and I have no way to apply what I learned unless I choose to work with their company. Use of books to promote the authors' business is a consistent trend in the publication of business books. I don't object to it if the book provides real value the reader can apply even without engaging the services of the authors' company. This book fails that basic test, as do many other such books. If the trend toward self-promotion continues without regard for the lasting value a book provides to the reader, I think the entire market segment will lose credibility.



By the way, in contacting the authors' company I learned that the cost of their services comes to about $10,000 per study. That's very reasonable for companies bigger or more mature than mine, but its well beyond what we can afford at our stage of growth.



I'll be selling this book soon on the Amazon.com marketplace. I only wish I had bought it there. Selling Blue Elephants: How to make great products that people want BEFORE they even know they want them (English, Spanish, German, Japanese, Mandarin ... Arabic, Dutch, Korean and Cantonese Edition)

The concept of Rule Developing Experimentation (RDE) should prove intriguing enough for any marketing manager looking to dive into the "blue ocean" of unstructured demand and untapped market space. The varying definitions of that ocean have led to RDE, the subject of this illuminating though somewhat presumptive book by market research mavens Howard Moskowitz and Alex Gofman. The source area of study will be familiar to anyone who has read W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne's Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make Competition Irrelevant and Chris Anderson's The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, both works reflecting authors who feel that any venture into the great unknown requires some discipline. Using experimental psychology and adaptive management as their basis of argument, Moskowitz and Gofman offer seven steps toward successful produce launches:



(1) Identify groups or classes of features that constitute the target product.

(2) Mix and match the elements according to an experimental design to create a set of prototypes.

(3) Show the prototypes to consumers and collect their responses on a rating question.

(4) Analyze results using a regression module.

(5) Uncover the optimal product by finding the best combination that has the highest sum of utilities.

(6) Identify naturally occurring attitudinal segments of the population that show similar patterns of the utilities.

(7) Apply the generated rules to create new products and services.



The template is far easier to grasp in theory than in execution, a point validated by the co-authors who assume companies have a clear understanding of their value-add in the marketplace at a most granular level. The most challenging aspect is identifying the right breakdown of product features and then using the appropriate statistical formulas to recognize the response patterns in order to make tangible enhancements. Quantifying the process is an admirable effort by the co-authors, but it seems to apply easier to hard consumer goods than softer services. However, the more constructive argument relates to the shortcomings of the more nebulous findings to be produced from survey questions or focus group discussions, the traditional means of eliciting such customer-generated data. So much qualitative judgment, in particular, by marketing managers constrained by their own thinking, can hamper such findings as to render them next to useless, especially in an established marketplace.



Moskowitz and Gofman point out how established name-brand companies who can afford to invest in RDE analysis (such as Hewlett-Packard and MasterCard) have yielded dividends from the approach. These companies typify markets that have become so saturated that the marketing leadership is forced to come up with new value propositions. This means testing a broad variety of feature combinations, and some may strike you as counterintuitive. It appears that the more combinations tested, the more actionable the findings, all of which makes this a potentially expensive methodology. The co-authors are particularly effective in showing how such thinking extends to design elements, even packaging, in order to assess a product's resonance on the marketplace. At times, I wish the co-authors would have toned down their use of superfluous jargon and their obvious pitch of ideamap.net as the source of their research software, but there is no doubt from this book that the subject of RDE is endlessly fascinating.

This book should have been great. It is about a critical subject (using testing to drive product and marketing choices to better serve/target market segments) and has a pioneer of the field as a co-author. I was predisposed to love it. But Selling Blue Elephants is a complete waste of time. As another reviewer wrote, it is just a blatant promotion for their testing services - and a bad one at that.



Now you might say "Isn't every book just a means to get the author consulting business?" That may be true, but usually the book in question still stands on its own.



This book tells stories of companies using the author's RDE testing approach without conveying any information the reader can actually use or learn from without hiring the authors firm. I get RDE helped Prego come up with chunky sauce. But how? That Vlasic created variants of a basic pickle to better appeal to multiple segments. Again, how? In discussing how RDE can help dissect your competitors products, how do you make statements like "Success in RDE deconstruction of the competitive frame is 80% getting the right raw materials in the first place?" and then not explain at all how the example company did this? ("raw materials" refer to the various components of that made up the competitors offering).



How did HP, Vlasic, Prego, or anyone else decide what to test in the first place, who to test it on, what elements to test, what takeaways to follow-up on and what to reject, etc. None of that is covered. Instead you get the equivalent of the power point presentation given by the Underpants Gnomes Where Step 1 is "collect underpants," step 2 is blank, and step 3 is "profit." The book has continued references like "don't worry about entering all the data manually; everything is done automatically if you are using a program such as IdeaMap.NET" (which happens to be the authors' proprietary tool). There is in fact so little info on actually doing testing that should the book convince you to buy their tool, you would still need to hire them to run it for you since there is nothing on how companies came up with the inputs in terms of hypothesis, elements, etc.



With due respect to Moskowitz's work as a consultant -- which if you have heard Malcolm Gladwell describe it is top notch -- Selling Blue Elephants fails as a business book has nothing to do with its sub-header "How to make great products that people want BEFORE they even know they want them." - Operations Research - Investing - Buzz - Marketing'


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