Americans seem to have a blind spot when it comes to history. We can't see the value of learning about the past, and applying its lessons to the present. We're arrogant enough with our vast wealth and power to believe that we invented everything first. Or we simply don't see the value of history, as a resource, as object lesson, as holding some answers to today's dilemmas. Brandeis University professor David Hackett Fischer acknowledges this blind spot and takes the long view in "The Great Wave." Utilizing a very long telescope, one that sees back as far as the Dark Ages, Fischer investigates the history of price changes to expound on a fascinating theory that can possibly foretell nothing less than the future of the United States, whether we're headed for an era of greater prosperity, or a catastrophe like that of the Great Depression. Fischer's long-view theme is similar to more popular and populist works that spring up like daffodils and last about as long: Toffler's "Fourth Wave" and "Future Shock" easily come to mind, and politicians have their favorite advocates of either the "future's so bright we got to wear shades" school of eternal optimism, or the "hunker down, boys, the Japanese / Germans / Latinos / big business / lower classes are coming over the walls" school. The theory behind "The Great Wave," in contrast, is the real thing, backed by solid research, not the author's political leanings. By examining the prices people paid for goods throughout history, four "price revolutions" were identified, each followed by a long period when prices were relatively stable. The intensity and length of each revolution was different, lasting as short as 80 years, to as long as 180 years. What provides the kick behind this notion is how this series of rising and fallings have had on the growth of society. In general, rising prices placed severe stresses on society at large. During the first three upticks (during the Medieval, 16th century and 18th century periods), bad weather added to the troubles by destroying harvests, leading to widespread starvation. The lower classes, squeezed between prices for basic foods they could no longer pay, as well as laws passed by the wealthy classes who wished to protect their investments, lead to catastrophes such as social revolution or a population-reducing plague. That would restabilize prices and, in general, give everybody a chance to catch their breath. Once the shocks of the collapse have passed, the society finds that prices have stabilized, and the population at large begins to recover. When times are good, the population tends to increase. This places stresses on food and fuel, triggering inflation. Continued prosperity increases the cycle of growth and demand, and added to the troubles are the occasional wars, when ambitious people felt comfortable enough with the status quo to demand more of it. This is a simplistic rendering in a review of what is actually a rather simple theory to understand in practice. Fischer tells the story of each wave, and the cause-and-effect patterns are so clear that it seems like one is reading the same story four times, with only the names of the players changed. Fischer's book looks intimidating at first. Its 536 pages is studded with charts showing the fluctuation of prices throughout history. But Fischer devotes only 258 pages to an analysis of prices waves; the rest of the book is taken up with appendices and essays on side issues. And the 258 pages contains 105 charts, further reducing the amount of reading needed to grasp the main points. Economics has been called the dismal science, but Fischer's work offers a cautionary story that is readily understandable and surprisingly compelling to the general reader. Where Fischer says we are on the next wave, I'll leave to those willing to make the effort. "The Great Wave" is well worth the journey. The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History
Fischer's book takes in a long view of basic economic history. It covers the period from roughly 1200 AD to present, using data from England, Europe and the United States. The book sizes up what has taken place economically, socially, etc. and it discusses some basic relationships. A great contribution of the book is that it becomes apparent to the reader that long term effects are frequently completely invisible to people coping with present economic situations. For example, many well-intended fiscal policies are counter-productive or produce neutral effects for this very reason. Another great supporting contribution of the book is that Fischer is well aware of the various schools of economic thought. At many places in the text, he points out weaknesses of certain theories; in his appendix he summarizes by showing that no existing single theory fully explains actual historical events. Another great contribution is the appendix itself. It comprises half the book, and contains a massive bibliography, with further elaborations on social issues, crime, disease, divorce, contrasts in economic theories, wealth distribution, and more. Most of the references are of high scholarly quality. There are a few shortcomings in presentation, but these are details. For example, Fischer occasionally makes asides which would be more effective if they were concise summaries. Also, some of his graphs have peculiar scaling. The reader must exercise care in interpreting them. Nevertheless, ... Fischer's work is an excellent overview of economic dynamics, and is highly recommended for obtaining a well-rounded perspective.
Utilizing a very long telescope, one that sees back into the Dark Ages, Brandise University professor David Hackett Fischer investigates the history of price changes to expound on a fascinating theory that can possibly foretell nothing less than the future of the United States, whether we're headed for an era of greater prosperity, or a catastrophe like that of the Great Depression.
By examining the prices people paid for goods throughout history, four price-revolutions, were identified, where inflation grew in intensity strong enough to destabilize society. After each crash came a long period of comparative price-equilibrium, when countries experienced growth in culture, such as during the Renaissance and the Enlightenment.
Fischer's book looks intimidating: its 536 pages is studded with charts showing the flucturation of prices throughout history. But Fishcher devotes only 258 pages to an analysis of prices waves; the rest of the book is taken up with appendices and essays on side issues. And the 258 pages contains 105 charts, further reducing the amount of reading needed to grasp the main points. Fischer retells history during the four waves, and there, except for the occasional burst of economic jargon, the text is compelling, and the theory well worth considering.
-- Bill Peschel - David Hackett Fischer - History - Finance - Popular Economics'
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